Understanding the odds and knowing our chances of survival
For our readers that may be new to the entire concept of SHTF preparedness, there might be a certain tone of worry that might color their opinion of what we talk about. Preparation is the cornerstone of a flourishing society, not just the result of excessive worry as some might think. Preparation is the entire reason why ever since mankind learned about crop cycles, a bad harvest caused just as much concern as the risk of a natural disaster.
Even though you’d have a higher chance of dying because of an electrical current (1 in 9,943) than getting struck by lightning (1 in 84,079), people in general worry more about a thunderstorm than possible wiring problems. The NPS shows that people have a 1 in 2.1 million chance of being killed by a bear in Yellowstone compared to the possibility of being killed by a dog at 1 in 700,000, and yet we have a deeper, more visceral fear of bears than of dogs. We arrive at these numbers through the compilation of significant amount of data and can, to some extent and accuracy, prevent them from coming to pass. Thanks to this information, we can prepare for the worst.
But what exactly are the statistics of a scenario this catastrophic actually coming to pass? Strictly speaking, the chances of society collapsing outright without extreme outside influence like a war or a complete worldwide market collapse are outright minimal, and somewhat impossible to measure. This isn’t a scenario that an organization like the National Safety Council can study and accurately predict – it’s something that just has a potential of happening.
Nobody ever wants to go into anything without a decent understanding of what to expect, for instance, betting on highly-anticipated events like the annual Cheltenham horse racing festival in the UK. Not only does it involve a person’s knowledge about the event and his understanding about who will triumph in the end but it also requires him or her to carefully determine the odds involved. There are literally hundreds of horses in the race. Without rigorously studying facts and figures, you’ll only be bringing a knife into a gunfight. Punters will destroy you, and bookers will eat your hard-earned cash for nothing.
Unlike a well-calculated sporting bet, where estimating the pros and cons of betting on an underdog relatively relies on what a betting site ad-vices, SHTF preparedness really doesn’t have a reliable barometer to work with. We just do it because we don’t want to be the ones who can’t protect ourselves, or our loved ones, when they need it most. When you don’t have statistics to work with, you do what you need to stay safe. That’s what motivates people to prepare, and we hope you always will be when the time comes.